Under the study’s RCP4.5 pathway, the modelling projects that about 267,500 properties and two million hectares of land could be affected by 2100. The authors estimate present-value damages of $855.1 billion, comprising about $274.3 billion in property losses and $580.7 billion in land-use losses.
Queensland is among the most exposed parts of the country in key model results. For coastal communities such as Cairns, the national findings underline the importance of detailed local hazard mapping, resilient planning and protection of natural coastal buffers. The national figures are not a Cairns-specific forecast.
The results are scenario-based projections, not a prediction that every modelled loss will occur. Outcomes depend on future emissions, sea levels, adaptation measures, asset data and modelling assumptions. The researchers also note that the estimates are conservative because some environmental, cultural and infrastructure losses were not included.
Illustration disclosure: The featured image is an AI-generated editorial illustration. It is not a photograph of a specific Australian community, flood event or property.
